Signs of Political and Military Instability in Ukraine

By David Sole

The cover story of the November 20, 2023 edition of Time magazine confirms what many had predicted – that Ukraine’s government is facing growing instability. A five month military “offensive” against the Russian Federation forces “has proceeded at an excruciating pace and with enormous losses.” Ukraine’s President Zelensky clearly is having trouble to “convince [U.S./NATO] partners that victory is around the corner” and “interest in the war has slackened” around the world.

Aides to Zelensky told journalist Simon Shuster that their president is “verging on the messianic” and that “he deludes himself….We’re out of options. We’re not winning. But try telling him that.” Some aides “warned me to expect … a major shake-up in the President’s team. At least on minister would need to be fired, along with a senior general in charge of the counteroffensive.” Any such firings will be coming after the dismissal of the Defense Minister and most of his deputies on September 4.

Finding someone to blame for the losing position that Ukraine finds itself in fighting a proxy war for the Western powers who only care about weakening Russia, will not solve any of Ukraine’s problems. Shuster reports that military “recruitment is way down… stories are spreading … of draft officers pulling men off trains and buses and sending them to the front.” Filling the ranks after such heavy casualties has “forced the call up [of] ever older personnel, raising the average age of a soldier in Ukraine to around 43 years.”

The situation is so dire that “some front-line commanders…have begun refusing orders to advance, even when they came directly from the office of the President.”

A recent report from the Russian Ministry of Defense says that the Russian forces have received new anti-aircraft missile systems. According to Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu the Russian’s “have shot down 24 Ukrainian jets over the past few days.” This would not bode well for the promised F-16 fighter jets expected by Ukraine from NATO nations.

RT.com reported on October 27 that Hungary and Slovakia, both members of the NATO alliance, blocked $52.8 billion of aid to Ukraine.  This occurred at a European Union summit on October 26 held in Brussels.

A divided U.S. Congress has also been stalled over the issue of a multi-billion dollar aid package for Ukraine put forward by President Joe Biden. That hasn’t stopped the collaboration between Ukraine and the CIA to destroy targets in Russian territory. Bombings have been “orchestrated by Ukraine’s domestic security service, the SBU, according to officials who provided details…part of a raging shadow war.” These ties “have developed over nearly a decade – since” the United States organized the 2014 Maidan right-wing coup “a period during which the services also forged deep new bonds with the CIA.”

People in the U.S. have begun to tire of the endless funding of the Ukraine proxy war. It was not widely known that financial aid to Ukraine has been around $1.1 billion a month. This was revealed in the funding request sent to Congress by Biden “enabling Kiev to plug holes in its budget and pay government employees.”

Ukraine’s continuing failure militarily will inevitably result in further political instability in that nation. A major reorientation towards a negotiated settlement currently is unthinkable for President Zelensky or President Biden. Further military disasters could precipitate a change in Ukraine’s leadership that could pave the way to a peace treaty.