By David Sole
The Ukrainian public is growing weary and disillusioned with its proxy war fought on behalf of the U.S. and NATO against the Russian Federation. Promised a quick victory and unending economic and military aid from NATO and the U.S., a recent public opinion poll “found that about 44 percent of Ukrainian civilians favored starting official talks with Russia.” Another July poll showed “that nearly a third…would agree to cede some territory to Russia to end the war. That’s more than three times as many as the year before.
The shift in public opinion in Ukraine is a direct result of the continuing defeats on the battlefield as Russia presses forward all along the line of contact, nearly 600 miles long. Another factor is the financial crisis Ukraine finds itself in.
On July 31 Ukraine’s President Zelensky signed a law “to skip international debt payments marking a short-lived default” pending a possible restructuring plan on international debts. “Ukraine will not pay a $34 million coupon for a Eurobond maturing in 2026, due on August 1.” “The proposal includes a 37% nominal haircut on Ukraine’s outstanding international bonds, aiming to save $11.4 billion over the next three years – the duration of its IMF program. Despite this, Ukraine’s finances will remain strained.”
S&P Global went as far as to cut Ukraine’s credit rating to “selective default” on August 2. “The rating agency said … that the country’s bonds would drop to ‘D’ for full-scale default once the restructuring takes place.”
Ukraine’s economic and especially military failures are also taking a toll on U.S. public opinion. According to a recent PEW Research poll “Americans overall are evenly divided on whether the U.S. has a responsibility to “help” Ukraine (48% say it does, 49% say it does not). This could greatly affect the proxy war since the United States has been the major promoter and financier of the war against Russia ever since the CIA sponsored coup in Kiev in 2014.
On the diplomatic front Ukraine is suffering further isolation. The government of Niger in West Africa “cut diplomatic ties with Ukraine, a move which signals a burgeoning rift between some West African States and Kyiv.” The action was made “in ‘solidarity’ with neighboring Mali, who severed their own relations with Ukraine two days ago. Both countries cited comments by a Ukrainian military official, who suggested Kyiv played a role in the killing of dozens of Malian soldiers last month.” It was also reported that “Over the weekend, Senegal’s foreign ministry summoned Ukraine’s ambassador, Yuri Pyvovarov, accusing him of supporting July’s attack in Mali.”
The ECOWAS regional organization in West Africa has also gone on record condemning “the killings in Mali and expressed strong opposition to any foreign interference that threatens the region’s peace and security.”
Unable to stem Russian advances and facing superior numbers of Russian troops with an overwhelming advantage in weaponry, artillery, air power and drone sophistication, Ukraine has been steadily pushed back on all fronts. In a desperate attempt to grab headlines Ukraine launched a reckless attack into Russian territory on August 6.
Western as well as Russian media reported that Ukrainian Army units, numbering perhaps 1,000 soldiers with a column of tanks and armored fighting vehicles, crossed the border into Russia’s Kursk province. The surprise attack penetrated several miles but has come under heavy fire from Russian fighter jets, drones and military units.
TASS News Agency, quoting the Russian Ministry of Defense, reported on August 8 that “the Ukrainian armed forces have lost a total of 660 servicemen and 82 armored vehicles since the beginning of hostilities in the Kursk area.” Russian civilians have been killed or wounded in several villages in the area. Around 6,000 civilians have been evacuated while the fighting continues.
There is actually no military significance to this operation. Ukraine cannot follow up the original assault as it is already stretched thin on all fronts. Nor is the Russian military drawing forces from its front lines to Kursk. All reports agree that the Russian armed forces have ample reserves to deal with this incident. A spokesperson for the analytical Black Bird Group, Pasi Paroinen, summed it up while talking to the New York Times on August 7. He said “Operationally and strategically, this attack makes absolutely zero sense. This seems like a gross waste of men and resources badly needed elsewhere.”
As public support in Ukraine, the U.S., Europe and around the world for continuing this bloody and costly proxy war against Russia wanes, military and economic aid to Ukraine will falter. Unless Ukraine’s handlers allow their proxies to open serious peace talks, the casualties and losses will continue. The danger of reckless escalation by the U.S. and NATO to put off the inevitable cannot be discounted as a strong possibility. However, that only raises the danger of a wider and more destructive conflict.
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