Political Shifts Dominate Ukraine War

By David Sole

While the Russian Federation military continues to push back Ukrainian forces on many fronts, dramatic new political events may end up deciding this proxy war’s outcome.

A remarkable televised meeting took place in the White House on February 28 between President Donald Trump and Ukraine’s leader, Volodymyr Zelensky. Ukraine is the product of over a decade of U.S. plotting to force Russia into a war that is now entering its fourth year. Despite hundreds of billions of dollars from the U.S. and NATO allies in weaponry and financial assistance, Russia is now widely recognized as unbeatable on the battlefield. Zelensky has been a loyal lackey whose U.S. masters have decided to change course.

Trump represents a faction of the U.S. ruling class that has decided to make a sharp turn and abandon their Ukraine adventure. This wing of U.S. imperialism wants to shift and to face off against the People’s Republic of China militarily and economically. It is no wonder that Zelensky was verbally beaten up by Trump, Vance and others at the White House as they told their puppet that he had no say in the coming negotiations and that they held all the cards.

This harsh reality check ended only when they ushered Zelensky out the door. Needless to say, the other faction of the U.S. ruling class, supported by most of the bourgeois liberal media, were aghast at this harsh treatment of a person they have been extolling as they have covered up the realities of this war policy against Russia.

Zelensky might have more to worry about as the Trump administration proceeds with direct negotiations with Russia over the war and U.S.-Russia economic relations. On March 2 U.S. National Security Adviser Mike Waltz told CNN “We need a leader that can deal with us.” He went on “This cannot proceed…”

It should be remembered that another U.S. puppet leader also came into disfavor after being unable to stabilize the government of South Vietnam in 1963. President Ngo Dinh Diem had loyally served U.S. imperialism from 1955 until 1963. It was decided by the U.S. that Diem had to go, and the CIA organized a coup with some Vietnamese military officers. Diem, and his brother Ngo Dinh Nhu, were arrested and assassinated in Saigon on November 2, 1963, during the coup. If Zelensky becomes a hindrance to U.S. imperialism’s aims his future may be grim.

It isn’t clear that Trump can get an agreement with Russia’s President Putin. Russia’s goals in the war were clearly laid out at its start in February 2022. They include demilitarization of Ukraine, a guaranteed Ukrainian neutrality with no NATO membership, denazification of Ukraine and Ukraine will have to recognize Russia’s incorporation of largely Russian ethnic territories in the east. Trump may want to try to entice Russia away from its alliance with China and BRICS+ but it is not likely to succeed. Trump did extend broad sanctions against Russia for another year at the end of February.

European leaders, meanwhile, are still committed to the Ukraine war, even though they are the U.S.’s junior partners. There has been some fuming, but it is not likely they can prop up Zelensky if U.S. military and economic pipelines are cut off. The United Kingdom, France and even Türkiye have also been proposing to send thousands of their troops into Ukraine if a peace deal is actually reached in the U.S.-Russia peace process. Russia is not likely to agree to a NATO occupation of Ukraine.

There has also been a lot of talk about who will control the mineral wealth of Ukraine. Trump has been relentlessly pressuring Zelensky for a 50% share in this potentially lucrative area. Zelensky was supposed to be coming to the White House to sign a deal that the New York Times said would have Ukraine “relinquish to the United States half of its revenues from natural resources, including minerals, gas and oil, as well as earnings from ports and other infrastructure” but the document “still does not provide any specific security commitments in return from the United States.”

Trump has demanded from Zelensky up to $500 billion as repayment for U.S. aid during the war. Observers have commented that there is nowhere near that amount of revenue from Ukraine’s economy. The Times notes “The figure far exceeds the country’s actual revenues from resources, which were $1.1 billion last year, and is more than four times the value of U.S. aid committed to Ukraine so far.”