By David Sole
Over the past year media reports from both pro-Ukraine and pro-Russia sources have agreed that Russian Federation forces have been making slow but steady advances all along the 600-mile-long line of contact. The Western pro-Ukraine news has spun this by claiming that Russia is taking huge losses and cannot continue its forward momentum. The Russians report that they have adopted new tactics to minimize casualties from intensive drone warfare. They have steadily moved against Ukrainian positions aiming to surround enemy garrisons, forcing them to retreat or suffer heavy losses.
The one thing that has become clear, however, is that the Russian Ministry of Defense does not exaggerate its gains. Rather the Russians often wait until well after a success on the battlefield is assured to officially announce an advance.
On October 29 Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that over 10,000 Ukrainian soldiers were surrounded in pincer movements that had closed around the cities of Petrovsk, in western Donetsk province, and Kupyansk, in northeast Kharkiv province. Putin even offered to facilitate the travel of journalists to the front with a temporary truce after Ukrainian officials barred the media from those regions. He also offered to negotiate the surrender of the encircled Ukrainian forces. Russia claims that it has exerted “fire control” over all roads previously used to resupply its garrisons in those embattled cities.
Ukraine, meanwhile, has denied that its troops are surrounded. Reports from most major Western media usually repeat Ukraine’s version but are now admitting that fighting is intense. Ukraine claims to still control most of Petrovsk while not denying that their troops are surrounded. Some reports claim that the Russians outnumber Ukrainian defenders eight to one.
The coming weeks should clarify which side’s story is accurate. Should these battles end in defeat, or even surrender, of thousands of Ukraine’s most experienced fighters it would mark a significant turn in this war. These losses would be in addition to the tens of thousands of Ukrainian troops reportedly deserting their units and others who are avoiding military service altogether.
Russia has not wavered in its main goals after launching its Special Military Operation in February 2022 against the Ukrainian government installed by a CIA sponsored coup in February 2014. That coup was followed up by the US and its NATO allies building up a massive army that was headed by pro-Nazi militias and used in deadly warfare against ethnic Russian Ukrainians. Those goals center on a neutral Ukraine with not NATO military bases in that country, demilitarization of the big NATO sponsored army and denazification of the military and government leadership.
US President Donald Trump has boasted for the past year, even during his campaign for a second term, that he would end the Russia-Ukraine war in short order. All the while, however, the US has been funneling weapons, and pushing its NATO allies to boost their contributions, to Ukraine. This has prolonged the death and destruction.
Trump has erratically swung from courting President Putin to threatening the Russian leader. Most recently, Trump has been threatening to provide Ukraine with long-range Tomahawk missiles. Newsweek reported on October 31:
“The Pentagon has approved providing Ukraine with long-range Tomahawk missiles after determining it would not harm U.S. stockpiles, leaving the final decision to President Donald Trump…Supplying Ukraine with Tomahawk missiles poses both strategic and political challenges for the Trump administration. The long-range missiles, capable of striking targets up to 1,000 miles away, would significantly boost Ukraine’s ability to hit Russian infrastructure deep inside enemy territory.”
Supplying Tomahawk missiles, however, would not just be an escalation in fire power handed over to Ukraine. These sophisticated weapons would require US military personnel for the transfer, set up, and most importantly launching and targeting of the devices. This would also include operation of US satellites. Tomahawks would directly involve the US military in the war, even more so than is happening now with the tens of billions of dollars’ worth of weaponry short of long-range missiles.
An escalation of this magnitude could bring on unforeseen consequences from the Russian side. Trump, the self-proclaimed “peace-maker” is playing with fire if he goes down this path.
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