By David Sole
In a startling revelation, Brigadier General Sergey Sobko of the Ukrainian military warned that his nation’s armed forces are so in need of reform “otherwise we may be defeated.” He also complained that promotions are being made on “personal loyalty” rather than for performance.
This post by the high ranking combat leader came on July 17, only days after Ukraine President Zelensky fired the nation’s Defense Minister Mykhailo Federov in what the New York Times called “a titanic clash with the country’s top military commander.”
The Times reported that Federov, a proponent of the dramatic but militarily insignificant drone warfare, was in conflict with Ukraine’s top military officer, General Oleksandr Syrskyi over how to spend limited resources. Perhaps more to the point in the atmosphere of Ukraine politics the Times speculates “Mr. Zelensky’s dismissal of Mr. Federov, 35, sidelines a potential political rival who had seized the spotlight.”
No honest appraisal, however, can be obtained from Ukrainian battlefield reports, or from major western media. The U.S. and NATO allies are deeply invested in this proxy war with Russia. The Europeans have, to a great extent, caved into U.S. demands that they steeply increase their military spending. The Trump administration wants Europe to be the main force in a fight against Russia while the U.S. shifts to bigger confrontations with China.
However, this pivot does not mean the U.S. is abandoning Ukraine. During the NATO summit in early July, Trump announced that the U.S. was giving license for Ukraine to begin production of the Patriot missile system. One week later the French government announced it “will allow Ukraine to produce French-made cruise missiles, precision guided bombs and air defense interceptor missiles on top of orders for the next-generation Franco-Italian air defense system SAMP/T and 16 Rafale fighter jets.” Military analysts doubt that Ukraine can ever put these production systems online.
During the Vietnam War it was widely assumed that the Western media, and especially the White House, State Department and the Pentagon were totally unreliable in their reporting and statements. Anti-war activists in the U.S. found that the reports by the Vietnamese government were more dependable. Many here in the States took to listening to short-wave radio broadcasts of “The Voice of Vietnam” beamed over Radio Havana.
Over the past few years, it has become clear that the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) reports are, if anything, more conservative in their claims. Often the MoD will not announce the Russian victory in taking a town or city until there is no doubt about the outcome.
Recent reports by the MoD claim Russia has made important gains in the northwest Donetsk People’s Republic, laying the basis for total liberation of that region from Ukrainian control reaching back to 2014.
Two large cities are now being closed in on – Kramatorsk and Slavyansk. A whole area represents fortifications that go back over a decade. The cities of Krasny-Liman and Konstantinovka are claimed to have fallen to Russian forces and now are undergoing scattered mop-up operations. This leaves the field open for the Russian military to advance to the last remaining strongholds held by Ukraine in the area.
